"Uptober" Fails: Bitcoin's November Blues
The October Effect Bites Back
Bitcoin's having a rough November, no doubt. The price is down to $104,288 as of today, November 4th, 2025. That's a 2.13% drop on the day, and more importantly, it's below that crucial 200-day moving average (200 EMA). For those who aren't glued to charts, that's generally considered a bearish signal. The question now is whether this is a temporary blip or the start of something uglier.
October's performance is what really stings. It was the worst October in a decade, a 3.69% decline against an average historical gain of nearly 20%. That's a 23.61 percentage point underperformance, to be exact. "Uptober" is usually a reliable narrative, and this year, it completely failed. The overall crypto market cap took a $100 billion hit. Ethereum, Solana, XRP – they're all feeling the pressure.
The technical breakdown paints a grim picture. We've broken through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is another red flag for technical traders. The next stop is likely the $100,000 psychological level, and if that doesn't hold, analysts are eyeing a potential slide to the $74,000-$77,000 range. That’s a potential 30% drop from current levels.
The Bitcoin Dip: Fed, Whales, or Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
Digging Deeper: What's Really Driving the Decline?
So, what's behind this sudden shift? Multiple factors seem to be at play. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut (a mere 25 basis points) was overshadowed by Chair Powell's hawkish comments. The market's expectation of further cuts in December plummeted from 96% to below 70%. That's a major shift in sentiment, and it's impacting risk assets like Bitcoin.
But the Fed isn't the whole story. On-chain data, specifically the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, suggests further weakness. The NUPL is currently at 0.47, the lowest since April 8th. Looking back, a similar NUPL decline in February-April preceded a rally. Will history repeat itself, or is this time different?
I've looked at hundreds of these on-chain reports, and this particular decline is interesting. (It lacks the sharp, panic-driven selling we often see.) It's a more gradual, almost methodical, unwinding of positions.
Ryan McMillin, CIO at Merkle Tree Capital, pointed to long-term holders "finally cashing in after an extraordinary run." That makes sense. After a sustained rally, some profit-taking is inevitable. He also noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs have swung to net outflows, which is adding to the downward pressure.
Matt Poblocki, GM of Binance Australia, suggests that the volatility is a reminder that crypto is still a maturing asset class. Holger Arians, CEO of Banxa, believes that markets were running too hot relative to the geopolitical landscape.
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A Methodological Critique
But let's pause for a moment and consider the data gathering. These "expert opinions" are valuable, but how were they collected? Were these off-the-cuff remarks given to Cointelegraph? Or carefully considered statements? The source matters. If it's just a collection of tweets, we should treat it as anecdotal evidence, not definitive proof.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. We're seeing a confluence of factors – Fed policy, on-chain data, expert opinions – all pointing in the same direction. But is it a self-fulfilling prophecy? Are traders selling *because* they expect a downturn?
Bitcoin's $100K Cliff: Brace for Impact?
The $100,000 Line in the Sand
The $100,000 level is the key to watch. If Bitcoin breaks below that, the bears will likely gain further control. Bitfinex analysts warn that a "sustained break below $106,000-$107,000 range could send BTC back under $100,000." Kruger emphasizes that the 50-week SMA is around $103,000, suggesting that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend.
However, a 30% decline would erase the entire upward rally observed over the last six months, when Bitcoin gained a total of 70%. That's a significant correction, but it's not unprecedented in Bitcoin's history.
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The Sentiment Shift Is Real
The numbers paint a clear picture: Bitcoin is facing significant headwinds. The October decline was a major setback, and the technical indicators suggest further downside potential. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is adding to the pressure, and on-chain data points to continued weakness. While some analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, the near-term picture is undeniably bearish.
A Cold Shower of Reality
Bitcoin's not dead, but the party's definitely over—for now.
